Elsevier

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Scenario planning with a sociological eye: Augmenting the intuitive logics approach to agreement the Future of Scotland and the Great britain

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Open access

Highlights

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This paper augments the intuitive logics (IL) approach to scenario planning.

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It draws on concepts from social theory to raise notions of causality.

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Its thesis is that amanuensis–construction interactions underpin unfolding futures.

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Information technology reports on a scenario exercise into the future of the UK and Scotland.

Abstract

This newspaper draws on a social theory-informed understanding of causality to illustrate how notions of agent–structure interactions can raise the intuitive logics (IL) arroyo to scenario planning. It incorporates concepts such as the 'subjective' predispositions of bureau, 'objective' structures of social systems, activity dependence, unintended consequences of activeness and issue-time temporality in the IL method to augment causal analysis in the scenario development process. The paper illustrates the social theory-informed IL framework through its application to a scenario exercise undertaken in the atomic number 82-up to the Scottish plebiscite on independence from the United Kingdom on September 18th, 2022. The central thesis of the newspaper is that agent–structure interactions underpin the unfolding of futures in social systems by both constraining and enabling the range of possible futures that tin can sally

Keywords

Intuitive logics

Scenario planning

Causality

Actors

Structures

Temporality

Public policy

Brad MacKay is Professor of Strategy in the University of St Andrews Management School, Scotland. His principal areas of consultancy, enquiry and educational activity interest are in the areas of strategy process (including both strategy germination and strategy execution), strategy practice, and the use of scenario planning in determination-making contexts characterized by complication and uncertainty. He works with companies in diverse industries including automotive, the cultural industries, financial services, general manufacturing, government, military and oil and gas. His enquiry has been published in a number of leading scholarly journals and books. He holds a BA from Dalhousie University in Canada, and an M.Litt (MSc) and PhD from the Academy of St Andrews in Scotland. Electronic mail: [email protected]

Veselina Stoyanova is a Lecturer in Strategy at the Section of Strategy and System in Strathclyde Business School. Veselina'due south enquiry interest centers on issues of organisational change, strategic development and adaptation during times of dubiety and complexity (e.g. financial crises, changing political or marketplace landscapes). In the last four years, Dr. Stoyanova has been closely engaged with the financial industry in the Great britain and major international banks. Veselina has as well researched and published works in the field of sustainability in emerging markets in detail looking at the development of sustainability in SMEs in the wine industry in Bulgaria and the role sustainable practices accept on companies' competitiveness. She holds a PhD in Direction (Strategy and International Business focus) from the University of Edinburgh, Business Schoolhouse where she was a recipient of the prestigious Master'due south Development Scholarship, awarded by the University of Edinburgh. Email: [email protected]

© 2022 The Authors. Published past Elsevier Inc.